Democrats, Republicans Crafting Messages for November’s Crucial Midterm Elections

As the coronavirus pandemic eases and Americans anxiously watch the war in Ukraine, Democrats and Republicans are honing their pitches to voters in this year’s critical midterm elections. The outcome of elections hinges on message, momentum, and money. Both parties, particularly their incumbents, will have the resources needed to compete in the general election. So, the money factor will likely be a wash.

But Republicans have history on their side. The party that controls the White House routinely suffers catastrophic losses during midterm elections. With President Joe Biden struggling in the polls, Democrats are bracing for the prospect of losing the House, and perhaps the Senate. Since the money game is a push and momentum is currently on the side of the GOP, the message Democratic and Republican candidates deliver to voters could determine not only November’s general election, but which party has the driver’s seat going into the 2024 presidential contest. “We have to carry the message that we’re here to ensure safe communities,” said U.S. Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX). “We want an economy that’s secure and prosperous. We’d like to see success for our kids in schools. Our government needs to be accountable to the people.”

Democrats control the White House and both chambers of Congress. They acknowledged that they need to improve their messaging to voters to be successful in November. “We do need to talk about what we’ve done and the legislation that we have passed,” said Rep. Colin Allred, D-TX). “That legislation is so big, like the American Rescue Plan and the bipartisan infrastructure bill, that people sometimes forget what was in it. You have to actually go through and kind of tell people why this legislation is important.”

Republicans this year need to pick up five seats to take control of the U.S. House. The GOP needs a net gain of one seat to take control of the Senate, as they currently hold 50 seats. Democrats have nominal control of the 50-50 chamber because Vice President Kamala Harris can cast tiebreaking votes. The outcome of midterm elections is typically predictable. The president in power is almost always humbled. In 2018, when Donald Trump was president, Democrats rallied voters angry that Republicans were trying to repeal the Affordable Care Act. They picked up 41 seats to seize control of the House. While Trump suffered a midterm meltdown in 2018, Barack Obama presided over defeats during the midterm elections during his presidency, including the 2010 contests in which Republicans picked up 63 seats to win the House.

The last time the party in power held serve was in 2002, when President George W. Bush and Republicans managed to hold the House and win the Senate. Only four times in history (1902, 1934, 1998 and 2002) has the president in power picked up House seats in a midterm election. “The magnitude of the Republican victory this November could be so large, and it could carry over into 2024 for whoever is the Republican nominee for president,” Burgess said. But Republicans are at a slight risk of being tripped up in November by Trump, a problem from 2020. Trump wants GOP candidates to acknowledge his grievances, notably the unfounded claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

Earlier this month, he rescinded his backing of Alabama Rep. Mo Brooks, a Senate candidate who said the former president can’t move past the 2020 elections. “President Trump has asked me to rescind the 2020 elections, immediately remove Joe Biden from the White House, immediately put President Trump back in the White House, and hold a new special election for the presidency,” Brooks said. Trump said Brooks had joined the ”woke” crowd. Burgess warned against party squabbling. “We have an opportunity to put the brakes on the bad stuff and bring it back to the center,” Burgess said. “We can’t squander it. We can start aiming at each other, but then we won’t accomplish what history is now making available to us to accomplish.”

It’s possible for Republicans to bash Biden, offer a conservative agenda and mollify Trump all at once. But the notion of a Trump comeback could chase away general election voters who are otherwise not thrilled with Biden. For their part, Democrats must aggressively explain their accomplishments. And they need to address the rising cost of goods and services, including food and fuel. “We have to acknowledge the pain that some folks are going through with the increased costs because so much of this has been driven by the pandemic,” Allred said. “[Candidates] have to acknowledge that and make sure people understand what the drivers are, and then talk about what we’re doing to actually fix it.” Allred praised Biden’s first term. “When you look around, unemployment is low and we’re getting the pandemic under control,” Allred said. “It’s because of the bills that we passed.” Colin Allred (D-TX) said Democrats could prevail in November. “Republicans don’t have a plan,” Allred said. “They just want to criticize us for things that are outside of our control.”

The 10 Senate Seats Most Likely to Flip in 2022

The war in Ukraine has shifted attention overseas, but even if President Joe Biden‘s approval has ticked up nominally, the national environment heading into the 2022 midterms still looks treacherous for his fellow Democrats as they try to hold their Senate majority. Russian President Vladimir Putin has given Biden a convenient foil on whom to blame high gas prices. (“Putin’s price hike,” he has called it.) But Republicans are hammering Democrats for rising inflation, which they argue predates the conflict in Ukraine.

Democrats point to the pandemic and stuck supply chains for the current inflation woes, blaming corporations for pocketing profits while Americans pay the price at the pump. The most vulnerable Democratic Senate incumbents — Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona, Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada and Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire — have tried to get ahead of the inevitable GOP attacks by introducing legislation that would suspend the federal gas tax through the end of the year. In a sign they’re trying to distance themselves from the national party, most of them also sided with Republicans on a recent vote to overturn the requirement that passengers wear masks on public transportation. Establishing their own brands in their states, independent of Biden, will be a challenge for Democrats running in November if the President’s approval rating remains in the low 40s. The party in the White House traditionally loses seats during the first midterm of a new president’s term.

Despite those obstacles, the Senate seat most likely to flip is still a pickup opportunity for Democrats. Pennsylvania has led this list since its incarnation — a testament to it being an open seat in a state Biden carried in 2020. The ranking is based on CNN’s reporting and fundraising and advertising data, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed. Two seats have traded places on the latest list, however, which underscores the difficult environment for Democrats: New Hampshire slides above North Carolina as more likely to flip.

Republicans have their own challenges, though, mostly candidate driven. May primaries in Ohio and Pennsylvania are heating up as GOP candidates jockey for former President Donald Trump‘s blessing. At the same time, candidates who do have his backing are finding that it doesn’t solve all their problems. (Trump just rescinded his endorsement for the open Senate seat in Alabama, where Rep. Mo Brooks’ campaign was underwhelming.) He’s backed candidates in two competitive states with May primaries — Georgia and North Carolina.

Much to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s chagrin, the chair of the GOP committee charged with flipping the Senate recently released an 11-point plan that calls for all Americans to pay income tax. Expect Democrats to tie all Republicans, even those who have disavowed the tax proposal, to Florida Sen. Rick Scott’s plan (released by his campaign, not the National Republican Senatorial Committee). It’s a tactic that House Democrats successfully used against the GOP in 2018, when they tied even Republicans who had voted against repealing Obamacare to that effort, and that Republicans used against Democrats in 2020 in linking the entire party to the “defund the police” movement.

The paid media (i.e., television advertising) portion of the campaign is just taking off in many of these races, so we’ll see how much that message sticks in the months to come. Here are the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip with less than eight months to go before Election Day:

1. Pennsylvania

Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (retiring)

Pennsylvania once again tops the list of seats most likely to flip. Republican candidates and super PACs have spent nearly $40 million in the open-seat race to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey ahead of the May 17 primary, with much of it coming from Mehmet Oz and David McCormick and their allies. Trump has yet to weigh in after his chosen candidate dropped out in November, which is fueling even more spending as Republicans try to prove their loyalty to the former President.

So, what are all the attacks about? Much of the rhetoric is standard GOP primary fare, enlivened with some quirks from the candidates’ biographies. Oz and allies of the former daytime host have attacked McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, as a “Wall Street insider” and said he “invested billions in China,” while casting Oz as an outsider like Trump. (His ads often cut to clips of Oz shaking hands with Trump as he welcomed him on his TV show.) McCormick and his allies have tried to tie Oz to Oprah Winfrey, Hollywood and former first lady Michelle Obama and say he “promoted Obamacare.” McCormick has his own “fight China” message and has argued Oz’s dual citizenship precludes him from putting “America first.” (Oz has since vowed to renounce his Turkish citizenship if elected.) McCormick led Oz 24% to 15% in a Fox poll of GOP primary voters conducted in early March. Businessman Jeff Bartos, former US ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands and political commentator Kathy Barnette all drew single digits. But nearly a third of primary voters were undecided, per the Fox poll.

As the GOP field has grown, the Democratic one has thinned with Val Arkoosh — a doctor and the only woman in the primary — dropping out in February. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and US Rep. Conor Lamb, both from Western Pennsylvania, are on the air, mostly with positive bio spots that give the primary a noticeably different tone than the GOP contest. Fetterman is seen as the current front-runner because of his fundraising advantage and statewide name recognition. But Lamb has a record of winning tough House races, with his ads touting that he’s previously beaten “the Trump machine.” Lamb has also picked up the endorsement of the Philadelphia Democratic Party. State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who hails from the vote-rich city, has some significant labor endorsements but is not on TV.

The bottom line here is that both parties think the other side’s primary will take the eventual nominee too far to the extremes. But, given how much the GOP primary is pushing candidates toward Trump in a state Biden won (and all the millions of dollars putting that message in front of voters), this Democratic pickup opportunity is still the most likely to change party hands.

2. Georgia

Incumbent: Democrat Raphael Warnock

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock is running for a full six-year term after winning a special election runoff last year. He has impressed with strong fundraising and is on the air with positive spots leaning into his background as a pastor and touting the legislation he’s co-sponsored that would temporarily suspend the federal gas tax.

Former NFL star Herschel Walker is the prohibitive Republican favorite in the May 24 primary, with both McConnell and Trump behind him. But attacks from his primary rivals and recent negative headlines over his business record could preview some of the scrutiny to come in the general election as Democrats gear up to face a first-time candidate whom much of the GOP establishment was bad mouthing this time last year.

But even with an untested likely opponent and a fundraising prowess that bests longer-serving Democratic incumbents on this list, Warnock is highly vulnerable because of the fundamentals of Georgia. He narrowly overperformed Biden in 2020, but both won by close margins in this purple state. And given Biden’s sagging approval ratings, the senator will need to maintain — and grow — his margins over the President. Turnout will be a crucial question in a midterm year, but in that regard, Democrats are excited that Stacey Abrams’ candidacy for governor may help energize nonwhite voters.

3. Wisconsin

Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson

As the only Republican running for reelection in a state Biden won in 2020, Sen. Ron Johnson remains the most vulnerable GOP incumbent this year. A Marquette University Law School poll conducted at the end of February found that 45% of registered Wisconsin voters had an unfavorable view of him with only 33% seeing him favorably. Democrats were ecstatic that Johnson decided to break a pledge to serve only two terms, and they see political hay in his penchant for controversial remarks. See, for example, his recent call for Republicans to repeal the Affordable Care Act if they win control of Congress. That’s a debate Democrats are happy to have after running on defending Obamacare in the 2018 midterms, when the law was much more popular than when Johnson last faced voters, in 2016. (Johnson later issued a clarifying statement, saying he he did not mean to suggest that repealing and replacing Obamacare should be a top priority for his party.)

Still, Republicans note that Johnson has been underestimated before and has come from behind to win. And while Biden narrowly carried the Badger State, his approval rating is at 43% (with 52% disapproving), according to the same Marquette poll. The Democratic field remains largely unknown. Even Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, whom the Marquette poll found in the lead among Democratic primary voters with 23%, was unknown to 53% of them. Two of his challengers who have poured their own money into their campaigns — Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry and state Treasurer Sarah Godlewski — are on TV, so voters’ familiarity with them could grow ahead of the August primary.

4. Arizona

Incumbent: Democrat Mark Kelly

The biggest news in Arizona over the past month is that GOP Gov. Doug Ducey said (again) that he would not run for Senate, which was a major relief for Democrats as Sen. Mark Kelly runs for a full six-year term in the purple state. The crowded field of GOP challengers, all jockeying for a Trump endorsement, is pulling the candidates to the right, potentially complicating the eventual nominee’s ability to make a general election pivot after the August primary. (Former Sen. Martha McSally, whom Kelly defeated in a 2020 special election, struggled with this dynamic in her races for Senate.)

State Attorney General Mark Brnovich is seen as the GOP front-runner, considering he’s already won statewide, but he’s struggled with fundraising. Venture capitalist Blake Masters picked up the backing of the anti-tax Club for Growth and already had the support of a super PAC funded by tech entrepreneur Peter Thiel, his onetime boss, so he’s not suffering for lack of outside assistance. Solar energy entrepreneur Jim Lamon, who had loaned his campaign $8 million by the end 2021, is up with plenty of ads talking about immigration. With the GOP primary still in flux, Kelly’s using his massive fundraising advantage to run positive spots about infrastructure and his work to address supply chain issues, with Democrats also spending on Spanish-language ads. Like Warnock, Kelly overperformed Biden in 2020, but the national environment has gotten worse for Democrats since and they cannot count on presidential-level turnout this year.

5. Nevada

Incumbent: Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is running ads featuring hospitality and restaurant workers touting her pandemic recovery efforts — another Democratic incumbent who’s using her campaign coffers to go up with positive spots while she has the airwaves to herself. Her campaign and Democratic outside groups are also running Spanish-language ads — an important early investment in the Silver State. Former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who has the backing of Trump and McConnell, is expected to win the June Republican primary, but he still faces a well-funded opponent. Laxalt is the grandson of a former governor and senator with the same last name, but he lost his most recent election, the 2018 governor’s race. Voters may know him more recently for serving as Trump’s state campaign co-chair and echoing his election fraud claims, which Democrats point to in calling Laxalt too extreme for the state.

But Biden didn’t win Nevada by all that much (about 2 points), and in a challenging national environment — with voters here especially worried about inflation and the economy — Cortez Masto is likely in for a tough race. The former Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair hasn’t raised nearly as much money as two of her higher-profile colleagues up for reelection (Warnock and Kelly) and has less recent experience trying to distance herself from the national party when facing voters. She won with about 47% of the vote in 2016, underperforming Hillary Clinton, to become the first Latina elected to the US Senate.

6. New Hampshire

Incumbent: Democrat Maggie Hassan

Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is in for a competitive race, even without a challenge from GOP Gov. Chris Sununu. Yes, the Granite State has gone blue in every federal election in the past six years. And yes, by the numbers, it’s the most daunting for Republicans given that Biden carried it by 7 points. But given Biden’s low approval rating and a sour national mood, even a Republican with a much lower profile than Sununu should be able to keep this one close. Fifty-five percent of New Hampshire adults disapproved of Biden’s job performance while 43% approved, according to a University of New Hampshire poll conducted in late February. Ratings of his handling of the economy were worse. Those may be difficult numbers for Hassan, a first-term senator, to overcome in an era when Senate races are increasingly nationalized.

Just how competitive November’s race is, however, may depend on what kind of campaigns Republicans Chuck Morse and Kevin Smith put together. There’s still time for these relatively unknown candidates to introduce themselves, but a September primary also doesn’t give them much time to position for the general election. Democrats think New Hampshire is one state where the abortion issue may prove to be particularly salient if the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade this year, because of the higher concentration of college-educated voters in the Granite State. Nearly two-thirds of New Hampshire adults in that UNH poll (which was taken before Biden nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court) said they wanted him to pick a justice who would vote to uphold Roe v. Wade.

7. North Carolina

Incumbent: Republican Richard Burr (retiring)

Trump took sides in the GOP primary in June, but his chosen candidate, US Rep. Ted Budd, hasn’t cleared the field. “He’s loved by, especially, the conservative wing of the party — highly respected guy,” Trump told the Washington Examiner earlier this month. Budd has had plenty of help on the airwaves from the political arm of the Club for Growth, which has spent millions attacking former Gov. Pat McCrory ahead of the May 17 Republican primary. The latest back-and-forth in this race is about Putin. McCrory’s first statewide TV ad accused Budd of being “friendly” toward Russia, selectively splicing comments the congressman has made about the Russian President, including calling him a “very intelligent actor.” The club responded with an ad calling McCrory’s attack a “low-down, dirty hit job” and surfacing footage of Budd calling Putin “evil” and expressing support for Ukraine.

Former Rep. Mark Walker and combat veteran Marjorie K. Eastman are still in the race but even if they peel some votes away from Budd or McCrory, it may not be enough to spoil an outright victory since the threshold needed to avoid a primary runoff is only 30%. The Democratic field is essentially set, with Cheri Beasley seeing her most viable opponents drop out. The former state Supreme Court chief justice hasn’t raised as much money as some Democrats in other races. And even though she doesn’t have a voting record, her judicial record could provide fodder for Republicans to try to paint her as soft on crime, similar to the way they’ve gone after Jackson since her Supreme Court nomination. Democrats are hopeful that a Black woman who’s previously been elected statewide will help mitigate the turnout problem they’ve often faced in North Carolina, especially in midterm years, but that may not be enough to overcome any anti-Democratic headwinds in a Trump state.

8. Florida

Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio

GOP Sen. Marco Rubio, who’s likely to face Democratic Rep. Val Demings in the fall, starts this race ahead in a state that Trump carried twice. The war in Ukraine has brought plenty of earned media opportunities for the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. His campaign has attacked Biden and Democrats for not doing more to increase domestic oil production amid a surge in gas prices. Demings, who has impressed with her fundraising, has a compelling profile — she’s a former Orlando police chief with firsthand experience fighting crime, a detail that appears prominently in her campaign media. But Republicans are signaling they will continue to tie her to the national party, even on the issue of rising crime rates.

9. Ohio

Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring)

The Buckeye State is playing host to one of the nastiest Republican primaries of the election cycle. But regardless of how badly dinged the eventual nominee emerges from the primary, he or she will start with the advantage for this open seat in an increasingly red state that Trump twice won by 8 points. Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan faces a primary, too, but he’s largely consolidated party support. It’s possible the May 3 primary will be delayed because of uncertainty over state legislative and congressional maps. That would only give Republicans more time for the kinds of attacks that have made this a topsy-turvy race, with poll leads fluctuating depending on who’s on the receiving end of the most televised vitriol.

Businessman Mike Gibbons and former state Treasurer Josh Mandel led the pack in a Fox poll conducted in early March, with a quarter of GOP primary voters undecided. Things got so heated between them at a recent candidate forum that they had to be physically separated. Gibbons is leaning hard into the outsider businessman persona. “Let’s tell politicians, ‘You’re fired,'” he says in one recent spot. (There are plenty of similar ads — he had loaned his campaign more than $11 million by the end of last year.) As CNN’s Gabby Orr reported, Trump has expressed concern about the general election viability of Mandel and is hung up about critical things “Hillbilly Elegy” author JD Vance has said about him in the past. Others in the race include former state GOP chair Jane Timken and state Sen. Matt Dolan. The Club for Growth’s political arm, which is backing Mandel, has tried tying Timken to Russia, but she has the backing of retiring Sen. Rob Portman, the co-chair of the Senate Ukraine Caucus. (Ohio has a significant Ukrainian American population, although Portman’s is not an endorsement that would go over well with Trump.) By far the biggest motif in GOP advertising isn’t Russia, but something a little closer to home, although still some 1,500 miles away from Ohio — the US southern border with Mexico.

10. Missouri

Incumbent: Republican Roy Blunt (retiring)

The prospect of former Gov. Eric Greitens winning the GOP nomination was already causing headaches in a red state that has no other reason to go blue. Those pains got more intense when Greitens’ ex-wife alleged he was physically abusive toward his children and her, according to court documents filed last week. (Greitens has denied this.) His primary opponents immediately called for him to drop out of the race, with some members of GOP leadership in Washington, DC, echoing that. Later in the week, Trump, who had previously left the door open to endorsing Greitens, gave US Rep. Billy Long reason to hope when he issued a positive statement about the former auctioneer. “Have the great people of Missouri been considering the big, loud, and proud personality of Congressman Billy Long for the Senate?” Trump said. “This is not an Endorsement, but I’m just askin’?”

Plenty of other candidates are vying for Trump’s backing too. Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt held a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago with Trump earlier this month. Sen. Josh Hawley, who called for Greitens to resign as governor in 2018, has already backed US Rep. Vicky Hartzler. The primary isn’t until August 2, and so far, there’s no sign Greitens is going anywhere. Democrat Lucas Kunce, a Marine veteran, outraised most of the top GOP candidates as of Dec. 31, 2021, but the Democratic nominee would not have an easy path to victory in a state that backed Trump by 15 points in 2020. The worsening headlines for Greitens could cause more Democrats to take another look at the race, but there’s not much time before the candidate filing deadline on March 29.

Pelosi Extends House Proxy Voting Despite COVID Pandemic Winding Down

While tourists can now roam the halls of the Capitol and members of Congress can mingle mask-free, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has once again extended the COVID-imposed policy of proxy, or remote voting. Pelosi (D-Calif.) announced on Monday that she would not require members to be physically present for votes until mid-May at the earliest, extending the order she put in place at the start of the 117th Congress in January 2021.

Pelosi cited a Monday letter from House Sergeant-at-Arms William J. Walker stating that the public health emergency “remains in effect” “I am hereby extending the ‘covered period’ designated on January 4, 2021 … until May 14, 2022,” Pelosi wrote in a Dear Colleague letter. Instead of being physically present on the floor, members can continue to submit their votes on legislation and other matters through designated members.

The Senate has not implemented such a rule despite the pandemic, requiring all 100 members to be present for their votes. Members of the House on both sides of the aisle have repeatedly used the order since it was first implemented. While its intent was to allow for social distancing and caution during the early days of the pandemic, many members have taken advantage of the order in order to cross other items off their personal agenda. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and GOP members previously sued House Speaker Nancy Pelosi for authorizing proxy voting.

In one instance, Rep. Karen Bass (D-Calif.) requested to vote by proxy in order to file paperwork in Los Angeles to run for mayor, according to the LA Times. Bass submitted her intent to vote by proxy two days before.

Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who has frequently voted by proxy, reportedly used the practice in order to conduct a video interview in his car with the Philadelphia Inquirer, according to the same outlet. “We have a long vote series today, so I got to step out of the Capital and I’m excited about having this conversation,” he said in the interview. Rep. Mo Brooks (R-Ala.) reportedly also used the practice last month in order to campaign for Senate. Rep. Bill Johnson argued coronavirus isn’t a valid excuse to continue proxy voting. Even House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-NY) voted via proxy earlier this year, on the same day she appeared with former President Donald Trump for a fundraiser at his Mar-a-Lago home.

Currently, there are 43 active letters of intent to use proxy voting among the House. The oldest one was submitted by Rep. Albio Sires (D-NJ), who submitted it on December 2nd of last year. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) blasted the extension Tuesday, calling it the “show-up-if-convenient policy,” in a statement to The Federalist. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy accused Democrats of being obsessed with “control.” “This has nothing to do with science, but everything to do with Democrats insatiable obsession with control,” he said. McCarthy challenged the order as unconstitutional soon after it took effect in May 2020, taking the matter all the way to the Supreme Court, which rejected it in January.

Rep. Bill Johnson (R-Ohio) echoed the minority leader’s criticism on Twitter, saying Democrats were “abusing” the practice. “Nancy Pelosi can do what she wants- she’s the Speaker. But let’s no longer pretend that Covid is the reason for continued proxy voting. Democrats are abusing it, and it should end…and it will next year,” he wrote. If Republicans do take back the House in this fall’s midterm elections, McCarthy has vowed to eliminate proxy voting. “Our very first day is rules,” he recently told Punchbowl News. “We’re no longer going to do proxy voting. People are going to be here.”

While Pelosi holds up the pandemic regulation, state and local governments have lifted most COVID-19 restrictions, including mask mandates and vaccine requirements. More than 80% of US citizens have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccines, according to the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention, with hospitalizations and deaths continuing to drop.

How Redistricting, Biden and Trump Shaped the Battle for the House

Redistricting has forged a new House map with a small group of Democrats in a perilous place at the center: defending turf that former President Donald Trump carried in 2020. All but four states have finalized their political lines, offering the clearest picture yet of a new House battleground that will force Democrats to protect at least five incumbents in districts Trump carried last election — the most politically hazardous place to be for the midterms. Adding to their burden, another five Democratic members abandoned Trump-won seats and left them open rather than seek reelection there.

Republicans must protect some challenging districts as well, with 15 GOP members in President Joe Biden-won seats, and any Democratic path to another majority involves picking off a number of those.

But the new midterm math of the House landscape shows Democrats are in a much tougher spot, grappling with factors including a contracting battlefield and a diminished president. The sitting president’s party has gotten wiped out of most of their “crossover districts” — along with plenty of others where the previous presidential race was close — in each recent midterm election. And a net loss of just five seats will be enough to flip the House.

“It’s hard to run away from an unpopular president, especially in the midterm,” said Democratic Rep. Ron Kind, who is retiring from a rural southwestern Wisconsin seat Trump won by 5 points. “And so, the president’s numbers have to get healthier going into the fall, or there will be a lot of Democrats struggling this year.”

So far redistricting has shrunk the number of truly competitive seats — those decided by less than 5 points at the presidential level in 2020 — down to just 31, according to a POLITICO analysis. (Before the redraws, there were about 50 seats decided by that margin.) Democrats have bolstered a number of incumbents’ districts, but they have also seen potential offensive targets disappear, leaving them with less room for error.

With Biden’s approval in the low 40s, Republicans expect their swing-seat incumbents will need less outside help, freeing up party resources and time to target Democratic incumbents in blue-leaning districts and potentially catch them sleeping.

“There really are not very many swing seats left,” said Dan Conston, the president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the chief House GOP super PAC. “That is forcing us to look at many more Democrat-leaning districts. But the political environment is good enough that we should be able to compete in traditional Democrat territory that we couldn’t in a normal election cycle.” “Outside of redistricting-created problems, there’s not going to be a lot of defense that will need to be played,” he added.

Thanks to redistricting, retirements and increased polarization and a decline in ticket splitting, the number of members in a district carried by the opposite party’s presidential nominee is relatively low. But if history is any indication, it’s also possible that Republicans could take back the House by sweeping away all the Democrats in Trump districts.

When Democrats won control of the House in 2006, 10 of the 18 Republicans lost reelection in districts carried by John Kerry in 2004. When the GOP wrested back the gavel in 2010, 36 of the 48 Democrats in John McCain-won seats were defeated. And four years ago, victorious House Democrats captured all but three of the 25 Republicans districts Hillary Clinton carried.

Democrats Begin Building a Latino Vote Firewall in the West

Democrats need to hold onto Senate seats in Arizona and Nevada to preserve their slim majority. And to win those states, they’re spending big to win over Latino voters.

The midterm election is eight months away, yet more than $650,000 has already been spent on Spanish-language TV and radio ads designed to reelect Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto. In neighboring Arizona, more than twice that amount has been plowed so far into Spanish-language ads backing Sen. Mark Kelly.

The large — and unusually early — expenditures are a sign that Democrats are beginning to take seriously the gains Republicans are making among Latino voters. Yet they’re also a reflection of something else: the key role the two battleground states will play in determining control of the Senate in November.

Democrats will have a hard time preserving their slim majority if Cortez Masto and Kelly are defeated. And the two first-term senators probably can’t win unless Latino voters turn out in strong numbers for them.

“These are states where it’s going to be so close — so, losing 2 or 3 percentage points of the Latino vote compared to the last [midterm] election would be devastating for Kelly or Cortez Masto,” said Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist and former senior adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) presidential campaign. “Not only do Democrats need to get Latinos to perform — they need to overperform if they’re going to win.”

Latinos have long been regarded as a key constituency for Democrats in both states. Arizona, where Kelly won his 2020 special election by fewer than 79,000 votes, is home to about 1.2 million eligible Latino voters, who represent one-in-four eligible voters. In Nevada, Cortez Masto — the first and only Latina ever elected to the Senate — won her seat in 2016 by fewer than 27,000 votes. More than 400,000 Latinos are eligible to vote there, making up 20 percent of the state’s total.

But the early Democratic spending on Spanish-language ads in the two races represents a marked shift after years of complaints from Latino operatives that the party waits until the last minute to spend on Latino outreach.

In Arizona, Majority Forward, the nonprofit arm of Senate Democrats’ super PAC, has spent more than $1.5 million on Spanish-language television and radios in March alone, according to a spreadsheet created by a leading media buying company and shared with POLITICO by a Democratic consultant. The ads have largely run across the Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma areas. Kelly’s campaign also spent almost $28,000 on Spanish-language radio ads in the Tucson market.

In Nevada, Majority Forward has spent more than $640,000 on Spanish-language TV and radio ads in the Las Vegas and Reno areas this month, in addition to the more than $14,000 spent by Cortez Masto’s campaign. “I haven’t seen spending from Democrats on Spanish-language ads this early in a Senate race in my entire career,” Rocha said.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has been running Spanish-language TV, radio and digital ads in both states since last year, though Republicans have not spent on those ads recently.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), chair of BOLD PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s campaign arm, said the amount spent on Spanish-language ads in Arizona so far is huge, considering that there have been elections when $1.5 million was spent on such ads over the course of an entire year.

“Clearly, lessons have been learned by Democrats,” Gallego said.

Still, Latino organizers and leaders in both states emphasize that Republicans are executing their own effort on the ground — and it’s going to take much more than Spanish-language ads to ensure Democratic victories in November.

“It’s going to be harder than we think it is. While Republicans may not be making big buys in Spanish radio or TV, we’re certainly seeing them on the ground,” said Melissa Morales, president of Somos PAC, a Latino voter mobilization organization that targets battleground states. “They’re running Latino-focused events in Nevada right now… They know we’re there and they’re there, too.”

Morales noted that Somos has gotten funding from donors earlier than ever before, signaling to her that there is a recognition within the party of the importance of courting Latino voters. While she welcomed the ad spending so far, she cautioned that TV and radio ads are not nearly enough to ensure a strong performance in the fall.

“I want to remind that… this is going to take one-on-one conversations, it’s going to take organizing and it’s going to take reaching people personally where they’re at,” Morales said.

Arizona and Nevada stand out as two of only three battleground states — the other is Colorado — that are expected to see significantly increased Hispanic turnout this year, according to projections from the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials Educational Fund. Arizona is expected to see a 9.6 percent increase in Latino voters, while Nevada will see a 5.8 percent jump, compared to 2018.

Rocha called Arizona and Nevada the top two states with sizable Latino populations that will be “crucial for Democrats to keep their majority,” followed by Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

A nonprofit founded by Biden allies, Building Back Together, has bolstered Democratic efforts by touting the president’s wins — and the senators who helped make them possible — to Latinos in Arizona and Nevada. The group is spending nearly $1 million in bilingual ads across TV, radio and digital platforms in battleground states.

Recently, the group ran Spanish-language TV ads exclusively in both states promoting Biden’s role in helping small businesses with loans amid the pandemic. They also placed Spanish-language billboards in Arizona touting how Biden, in his first year in office, had invested $2.7 billion in loans for Latino-owned small businesses, child tax credit checks for 17 million Latino children and heath care for 730,000 Latinos.

Mayra Macias, chief strategy officer of Building Back Together, explained that one of the reasons the group is targeting Arizona and Nevada, as well as other battleground states with large Latino populations, is because “those are states where it’s going to be important for [Biden] to have folks that will back up his agenda.”

At the same time, there is a keen awareness of frustrations among some Latino leaders and organizers who argue that the Biden administration hasn’t followed through on all its campaign promises and needs to push harder to get more done this year.

“Both the administration and the party are falling short of delivering on the promises our communities were expecting and that they showed up for [by voting] in the middle of a pandemic,” said Alejandra Gomez, co-executive director of LUCHA, a grassroots organization in Arizona that plans to knock on hundreds of thousands of doors this year.

“So, I ask: How bad do Democrats want to win? Because Latinos are ready,” she added. “They’re turning out… but we need to give people something to be excited for.”

Election Precedent? Maryland Congressional Redistricting Trial Poses Question of Court’s Reach

A Judge in Maryland opened an election-year trial this week with an important legal question: How far can she go if she finds the General Assembly enacted a congressional district map that illegally disadvantages Republican voters?

In two Anne Arundel County Circuit Court lawsuits being considered together, Republican elected officials and voters are asking Lynne A. Battaglia, a retired state appeals court judge, to toss out the map approved by the Democrat-controlled legislature in December.

One of the GOP groups, led by Del. Neil Parrott of Washington County, is asking Battaglia to order the state to fashion a new map or — in the interim — to use one in the June 28 primary that was created by a commission appointed by Republican Gov. Larry Hogan that included Democratic, Republican and independent voters.

Another participant in the case, longtime gerrymandering opponent Stephen M. Shapiro of Montgomery County, has submitted a “friend of the court” brief proposing a handful of alternative maps that he says would remove any “impermissible elements” from the boundary lines approved by the General Assembly.

Battaglia, in remarks before testimony began, said she had authority to issue an injunction blocking use of the current map, under which Democrats likely would retain control over seven of the state’s eight congressional seats. The sole district represented by a Republican, the Eastern Shore-based seat of U.S. Rep. Andy Harris, would become more competitive.

But the judge suggested it was unclear what might happen next. Noting the replacement maps proposed in the case, she said she did not know if the court could use one as a substitute if it finds the Democrats’ map deficient.

“I’m not clear that this court has the authority to do that,” Battaglia said. Doug Mayer, a former Hogan aide working with an advocacy group called Fair Maps Maryland that organized the map challenges, declined to be interviewed about possible outcomes while the trial is ongoing. A spokesperson for Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh, a Democrat defending the state’s position, also declined to comment.

Courts around the country historically have employed a variety of remedies in redistricting cases. Those fixes have included redrawing the maps themselves or ordering the state legislature to craft new boundaries.

According to legal experts, the Maryland case could be appealed by either side and ultimately be decided by the Maryland Court of Appeals.

The process of integrating another new map into the election would take considerable time. After new lines are drawn and approved, elections officials must find polling places and adjust voter information to reflect those boundary shifts. The state has indicated that any significant, court-ordered changes to the map likely would force the election to be delayed.

Democratic leaders say their map represents an improvement over Maryland’s current congressional map, which was adopted in 2011, because it makes most districts more compact and makes six of the eight at least somewhat more competitive.

But Sean Trende, an election analyst for RealClearPolitics, recently testified that — based on analyses of districts’ compactness and other characteristics — the Maryland map appeared highly partisan. He said its creators had “produced seven districts where Democrats would be overwhelmingly favored.”

Trende, called by Republican plaintiffs, was the first in a progression of expert witnesses expected to be summoned by both sides in the trial, which may last the rest of the week.

States are required to redraw their electoral maps once every decade to adjust for population changes since the last census and ensure that voters have roughly equal say in electing politicians to the U.S. House of Representatives.

Courts around the country have been dealing this year with complaints of alleged “gerrymandering.” Gerrymandering commonly involves stacking large numbers of the opposite party’s voters into a limited number of districts, leaving that party with too few voters to compete everywhere else.

In December, three Republican state delegates and others challenged the legality of the Maryland General Assembly-approved map of delegates’ and state senators’ districts. The three delegates say the maps don’t abide by Maryland constitutional guidelines. That case is ongoing.

In Baltimore County, a federal judge is deciding whether a new map of County Council districts is acceptable under the Voting Rights Act. The council’s original map was rejected on Feb. 22 by the court, which said it would disadvantage Black voters.